Democratic chances in this state have never been better and a large contingent of credible well funded candidates have emerged to take on the Republicans.
With 5 chances for a takeover and only 1 seat in defense, Ohio looks like an huge opportunity to make the NRCC spend some of that precious money they don’t have. There is one race that will have a hard hitting primary it appears which could well work against us in the long run, lets hope it stays clean.
In the 1st CD, State Representative Steve Driehaus represents a strong chance to knock Steve Chabot from his seat. The Democrats have contested this seat and come close in svseral of the past elections but no candidate they have sent has looked as strong as Driehaus.
The Dems have a competetive primary in the 2nd CD with the 06 nominee Vic Wulsin going toe to toe with Steve Black, a local attorney with deep local roots. This district is the home of the nutjob Jean Schmidt, and this lady is such a nutjob, she’d still be a whacko even without her nutty positions on the issues. Shes the fish that got away from the nice men in white jackets. Either candidate could put up quite a fight though I give the early advatage to Wulsin as she has higher name recognition from her previous campaign.
In the 14th CD, Judge Willaim O’Neil is taking the fight to Steve LaTourette. While this district isn’t overly competetive, O’Neil is by far the strongest candidate to attemot to take this seat and we should give him all the help we can. It is incredibly important to help any and all strong challengers even in questionable districts like this one because you never know when a Republican might stumble, like George Allen.
In the 15th CD, a candidate who needs no introduction is Mary Jo Kilroy. After coming within a few thousand votes last time, she once again vying for this now open seat. Kilroy is the odds on favorite to win this race and we need to make sure she has the support to take advantage of that.
In the 16th CD, State Senator John Boccieri is vying for the open seat. Boccieri is the strongest candidate the Democrats can field and if he doesn’t win this seat this year, it is unlikely that we will be able to take it anytime soon. The pressure is on for this seat and we must work hard to make sure we win it.
The 18th CD could be a competetive Democratic hold district with Zach Space winning the seat after Bob Ney lost it with his corruption. Thus far, Space lacks any significant opposition and has raised plenty of money, but this race could get competetive if any Republican candidate gains real traction.
My forecast:
OH-1: Tossup
OH-2: Lean GOP
OH-14: GOP Favored
OH-15: Lean Dem
OH-16: Lean GOP
OH-18: Dem Favored
These are predictions based on the scene now. With some good campaigning and fundraising, hopefully by November I’ll be able to issue a set that has moved significantly leftwards.
Ever bluer!
thats really the point of my posts. I realize that people are going to support the candidates that they like. However, in order to really have a chance at winning seats, like the DCCC has done so far, seats have to be targetted. The seats that I talk about are seats that can be competetive and seats that we as Democrats should really target with our donations and time. These seats that I look at here are where we are already raising large sums of cash and have good candidates, or have candidates, like the ones I mentioned at the bottom in Illinois, who have the potential to compete, but not the large sums of money. By specifically focusing our efforts on these seats, and by going after as many as we concieveably can, we open up even more opportunities for the Democrats, and personally, I want to leave nothing to chance.